Ian from Scotia Domains was kind to let me share his analysis of eBay LLLL.com market trends. Ian’s market analysis follows below.

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This isn’t exactly breaking news, but in case you don’t already know, average sale prices on eBay during June were pretty disastrous. Here’s an analysis of trends over the past eight months. I’ve excluded domains selling for more than $100 as I consider them outliers on eBay. All averages below are based on trendlines calculated from weekly figures, so smoothing out irregularities.

Mean prices have fallen over the last 8 months at an average rate of about $1.79 a month, a total of $14.33 over the period. The trend was a drop from $24.39 to $10.06, which is a drop of 83% based on the midpoint.

The average drop over the last 3 months was about $3.25 a month.

The best week of the period was November week 2 with a mean price of $28.47, and the worst week was June week 3 with a mean price of just $6.53.

Monthly means were -

November $23.25
December $20.14
January $21.41
February $20.13
March $17.47
April $14.83
May $13.39
June $8.57

So apart from a slight recovery in January, it’s been downhill all the way since November, and June was particularly bad.

Average remaining registration continued to fall. The overall November-March average was about 7.7 months, the overall May-june average was about 4.0 months. This fall accounts for about 51 cents of the monthly price drop, bringing the effective price drop down to about $1.28 a month.

Average domain quality also fell off during June, although it had remained fairly static over the preceding 7 months. The overall effect of this over the past 8 months accounts for about 15 cents of the monthly price drop, bringing the effective price drop down to about $1.13 a month.

Here are the percentile trends over the 8-month period -

The 5th percentile fell from $10.49 to $1.63, a fall of 146% based on the midpoint.

The 25th percentile fell from $13.90 to $4.31, a fall of 105% based on the midpoint.

The 50th percentile fell from $19.78 to $7.14, a fall of 94% based on the midpoint.

The 75th percentile fell from $29.46 to $12.42, a fall of 81% based on the midpoint.

The 95th percentile fell from $57.49 to $29.12, a fall of 66% based on the midpoint.

The 95th percentile figure shows that the price drops aren’t restricted to the lower quality domains, although these have certainly been falling a lot faster than the higher quality domains.

Related posts:

1. The Past 6 Months of eBay LLLL.com Sales
2. December 2007 LLLL.com Price Guide
3. January 2008 LLLL.com Price Guide